The tilapia market in the United States, one of the most significant destinations for global producers, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. The imposition of tariffs, particularly within the context of the U.S.-China trade war, has generated uncertainty and reshaped import dynamics. A recent study from Mississippi State University analyzes data from 1992 to April 2025 to uncover the direct revenue generated by these tariffs and their true impact on import prices.
This analysis is crucial for any tilapia producer or exporter as it addresses a fundamental question: With the implementation of these tariffs, who truly absorbs the economic burden? Is it the exporters in the countries of origin or the U.S. importers? The findings offer a detailed perspective on the market’s evolution and the factors that genuinely influence it.
The evolution of the U.S. tilapia import market
To understand the impact of tariffs, it is first necessary to examine the historical trajectory of the U.S. market.
The value of U.S. tilapia imports showed steady and pronounced growth from 1992, reaching its highest point in 2014 with an impressive figure of $1.12 billion. Similarly, import volumes also grew, peaking between 2012 and 2015 at over 500 million pounds annually.
However, according to the study, this landscape changed dramatically starting in July 2018 with the onset of the U.S.-China trade war. Since that date, the average value of imports has decreased to approximately $675 million per year. Volume has also seen a decline, stabilizing at an average of 400 million pounds annually. This decrease marks a clear turning point and underscores the market’s sensitivity to trade policies.
The Trade War and the new map of tilapia suppliers
The tariffs have acted as a disruptive force, significantly altering the market share of the main countries supplying tilapia to the United States.
China’s reconfigured dominance
Before the trade dispute, China was the undisputed supplier. In 2018, it supplied 64.5% of all U.S. tilapia imports. However, tariffs specifically targeting Chinese products led to a reduction in its dominance. By 2024, China’s share had fallen to 52.1% and stood at 54.6% in the first few months of 2025. Although it remains the main player, it has lost a significant portion of the market.
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Countries that capitalized on the opportunity
The reduction in China’s market share opened a window of opportunity for other producing countries, especially from Latin America and Asia.
- Colombia: Has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. Its share of the U.S. tilapia market jumped from 7.3% in 2018 to 14.5% in 2024.
- Indonesia: Also saw growth, increasing from 6.2% in 2018 to 9.6% in 2024.
- Taiwan: Increased its share from 4.2% to 5.7% in the same period.
- Brazil: Emerged as a new, relevant player, reaching a market share of 6.8% in 2024 and 8.3% in 2025. (Editor’s note: Although Brazil has recorded a significant increase in tilapia production and exports during 2024, the U.S. government recently imposed a 50% tariff.)
Conversely, some traditional Central American suppliers, such as Honduras and Costa Rica, saw their participation decline in this new competitive landscape.
The direct financial impact of the tariffs
The study quantified the revenue the U.S. government has collected directly from these tariffs on tilapia. When the trade war began in July 2018, $13.8 million was collected in tariffs. This figure escalated dramatically, reaching a peak of $99.4 million in 2022.
As expected, the majority of these tariffs were imposed on imports from China. This confirms that the tariff policy was strongly aimed at altering the trade balance with the Asian giant.
Tariffs and prices: A more complex relationship than expected
The study’s key question was to determine if these tariffs translated into significant changes in import prices. Nominal import prices for tilapia had been steadily rising since 1992, reaching a high of $2.19 per pound in 2014, before fluctuating between $1.50 and $2.00 per pound since 2015.
To isolate the effect of the tariffs, the researchers used an econometric model that adjusted prices for inflation and correlated them with variables such as time, import volume, the tariff rate, and the country of origin.
Who pays the tariffs?
The analysis yielded surprising results of great importance to the sector. Despite the heavy imposition of tariffs, the study found that:
- Import prices (inflation-adjusted) showed no statistically significant fall or rise over time.
- Prices were not significantly lower when import volumes were higher.
- Import prices for tilapia from China were not considerably different from those of other countries once the models were applied.
- Most importantly, import prices were lower with higher tariffs, but this relationship was not statistically significant.
The study’s conclusion is that there is no defined distribution of the tariff burden. In other words, it cannot be stated with certainty that Chinese exporters had to lower their prices to offset the tariff, nor that U.S. importers absorbed the entire cost. The burden appears to have been distributed in a diffuse and inconclusive manner among the parties.
Conclusions and implications for the aquaculture sector
The Mississippi State University study offers a clear view of the multifaceted effects of tariff policies on the U.S. tilapia market.
- Market redistribution: The tariffs have been effective in reshaping the supplier map, reducing dependency on China, and creating significant opportunities for countries like Colombia, Indonesia, and Brazil.
- Revenue generation: The tariffs have represented a substantial source of revenue for the U.S. government, reaching nearly $100 million at their peak.
- Inconclusive impact on prices: Despite the drastic measures, there is no solid statistical evidence to show that tariffs have significantly influenced tilapia import prices. The economic burden seems to have dissipated throughout the supply chain in a way that price analysis cannot directly capture.
For Latin American tilapia producers and exporters, this analysis underscores the importance of market diversification and competitiveness. While tariff policy has opened doors in the U.S. market, competition is fierce, and the final price remains the result of a complex interplay of factors that extend beyond import taxes.
Reference (open access):
Posadas, Benedict C. 2025. Tariffs on U.S. Tilapia Imports: Direct Revenues and Impacts on Prices. Vol. 15, No. 8. Mississippi State University Extension and Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Publication MASGP-25-058-8. July 31, 2025.
Editor at the digital magazine AquaHoy. He holds a degree in Aquaculture Biology from the National University of Santa (UNS) and a Master’s degree in Science and Innovation Management from the Polytechnic University of Valencia, with postgraduate diplomas in Business Innovation and Innovation Management. He possesses extensive experience in the aquaculture and fisheries sector, having led the Fisheries Innovation Unit of the National Program for Innovation in Fisheries and Aquaculture (PNIPA). He has served as a senior consultant in technology watch, an innovation project formulator and advisor, and a lecturer at UNS. He is a member of the Peruvian College of Biologists and was recognized by the World Aquaculture Society (WAS) in 2016 for his contribution to aquaculture.
