Fish is a vital source of protein and nutrients for billions of people worldwide. However, our growing appetite for seafood products is putting pressure on both wild fisheries and aquaculture.
On the other hand, aquaculture is rapidly becoming a key source of protein for our growing population. But how does the booming aquaculture industry impact food prices, land use, and the health of our oceans? A new study sheds light on these complex connections.
Researchers from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the University of Basel employed a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify the effects of aquaculture production on agricultural markets, food prices, and land use.
The dilemma between wild fish and land plants
Wild fish populations are often overfished beyond sustainable levels, despite quotas. Aquaculture has emerged as a solution, but most farmed fish heavily depend on fishmeal, a feed made from wild fish. This creates a vicious circle: the more aquaculture grows, the more pressure it puts on wild fish populations.
Fortunately, the industry is shifting towards plant-based fish feeds. While this seems positive, it raises another concern: land use. As demand for plant-based feeds increases, will it compete with human food production, potentially causing a rise in staple crop prices?
Understanding trade-offs
This research explores these critical issues using a sophisticated economic model. The model examines how substituting fishmeal with plant-based feeds affects global land use, agricultural markets, and staple crop prices. Additionally, it explores the impact of stricter fishing quotas aimed at restoring fish populations to sustainable levels.
Scientists delve into the data
The researchers employed sophisticated modeling techniques to analyze the ripple effects of aquaculture on agriculture, land use, and food prices. They explored three potential scenarios:
- Following FAO projections: This simulates the expected growth of aquaculture according to predictions from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
- Restoring wild fish populations: This scenario prioritizes achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14, “Life Below Water,” by allowing wild fish populations to recover.
- Rapid expansion of aquaculture: This scenario explores the impacts of a significant increase in aquaculture production, considering different levels of fishmeal availability.
The study revealed several key findings:
- Aquaculture’s impact on agriculture: Both aquaculture growth and fishmeal constraints (a common ingredient in fish feeds) can influence agricultural production, land use, and food prices.
- Sustainable fisheries, lower impact: Recovery of wild fish populations, while it may cause price fluctuations in some regions, has a less significant impact on agricultural markets compared to rapid aquaculture expansion.
- Dependency on fishmeal: Expansion of aquaculture with limited fishmeal can actually drive up prices of wild-caught fish due to increased demand for fishmeal production.
- Supporting the transition: Regions heavily reliant on wild fish for food may experience price increases during the transition to sustainable fishing practices. These regions are likely to need support during this period.
Link to SDGs
This study highlights the interconnectedness of SDGs 2 (Zero Hunger), 14 (Life Below Water), and 15 (Life on Land). Sustainable aquaculture practices that minimize pressure on wild fish populations and use alternative feed sources are crucial for balancing food security, healthy ecosystems, and responsible land use.
Looking to the future: Sustainable solutions
By embracing sustainable practices, such as using plant-based feeding alternatives for aquaculture species and supporting regions reliant on wild-caught fish during transitions, we can harness the potential of aquaculture to meet growing food demands while safeguarding our oceans and land resources. This research paves the way for further exploration of innovative solutions to ensure a healthy future for our planet and its inhabitants.
Furthermore, future research on the impact of aquaculture on land use could explore the environmental consequences of land use changes associated with increased demand for plant-based feeds.
By understanding the interconnectedness of these issues, we can develop sustainable solutions for the future of seafood production, ensuring a healthy planet and a secure food supply for future generations.
The study was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
Contact
Tobias Heimann
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, Germany
Email: tobias.heimann@ifw-kiel.de
Reference (open access)
Heimann, T., & Delzeit, R. (2024). Land for fish: Quantifying the connection between the aquaculture sector and agricultural markets. Ecological Economics, 217, 108090. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.108090
