Santiago, Chile.- By the year 2028, Latin American and Caribbean will account for over 25 % of global agricultural and fisheries exports, says the new OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028.
The joint report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations states that the region’s agricultural production will continue to grow, but slowing demand from both domestic sources and foreign markets is expected to contribute to slower growth over the next decade.
In spite of slower growth, the region will still see 22% growth for crops and 16% growth for livestock in the next ten years, seven and two percentage points faster than the global average, respectively.
Increased exports from the region will also limit the overall slowdown in production, so trade openness will remain of great importance to Latin American and Caribbean countries.
Export growth will also slow down, but the region’s comparative advantage in many agricultural products means it stands to capture a greater share of global markets.
For commodities, such as maize, rice and beef, stronger demand growth overseas than domestically means that a greater share of production will be destined for export in the coming decade.
While overall trade in agricultural and fisheries commodities will continue to expand over the coming decade, the pace will be slower –at around 1.3 percent annually– than the 3.3 percent average pace of the past 10 years.
According to the report, agriculture and fisheries production in Latin America and the Caribbean have grown by an average of 2.7% per year (in constant 2010 US dollars, including forestry) over the past two decades. Currently, Latin American and the Caribbean accounts for 14 percent of global agricultural production and 23 % of agricultural and fisheries commodities exports.
FAO and OECD forecast increased consumption of fruits, vegetables, meats, dairy, and fish relative to staples such as maize wheat, rice and beans. Maize per capita consumption is expected to decline by 4.3% in the coming decade.
OECD/FAO (2019), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028, OECD Publishing, Paris/Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.